Posts made by mikehzzzz

Hi,
I have been experimenting with a 100% fair value robot with no stop loss. The results can be very impressive in backtesting, sometimes winning over successive years with acceptable drawdown. Eventually though, the big drawdown usually comes and blows the account. I ran a test on 15 pairs from 2008 and three pairs actually stayed in profit throughout with the other 12 pairs blowing up.
I then ran some blocks of trades using a martingale with larger lot sizes. I'm currently trying to find a strategy where I repeatedly run blocks of 10 trades on three pairs simultaneously knowing that one and rarely two pairs will fail, but unless all three blow up over 10 trades it will result in an overall profit.
Prior to this I have focussed on trying to make consistant, lower level profits with my robots and this is a refreshing alternative approach.
Has anyone else taken this route? Are there similar, established trading or money management strategies out there that work?
Mike

Hi Dave, kind of... My backtesting could not be repeated on demo or live trading with current spreads. The various bits of advice were probably spot on. The missing history, the low spread setting and the period of testing can all skew results. I've had lots of successful tests on different robots. Finding a robot that is consistently profitable over time on different pairs in all markets with larger spreads taken into account is looking impossible. That's what makes trying so enjoyable for me! Good luck with your robot!

@l-andorrà Thank you again. I continued to search and found this solution, suggested by your good self to another forum user. It's not that I don't want to extend my knowledge but if a more simple solution exists I'd be happy using it! Anyway, the possibility of my equity increasing seems to be increasingly unlikely!!
https://fxdreema.com/shared/OSiuqqYZc

Hi,

I have a 'close losable trades block' to close unprofitable trades that are losing by a certain amount of money. I would like this amount to increase as my account size increases. What is the best way of doing this?
I can't yet work with code, variables or loops... possibly now is the time to learn! Unless there is a very simple solution?
Thanks
Mike

Wrong link!

Decided to rethink this. Post deleted.

Thanks for the responses. It seems to be about the spread. Anything above 2 and the robots performance worsens. Adding a maximum 2 spread block reduces trades and worsens performance. Hmm?

@mikehzzzz I had been making changes in an attempt to reduce the loss rate when it produced this result. It didn't reduce the loss rate from previous tests but the profit was significantly higher. I'll be interested in your thoughts. Thanks, Mike

@l-andorrà Thanks. I did test on every tick. If you enlarge, you can see this in the image.

@thedisliked It doesn't need to be attached. I think you need to make sure that the top number uses it where you want it in the sequence.

Hi,

Thanks, I can make some adjustments for the spread and change to an account with lower spreads if necessary.

I am not using a TP just a trailing stop. I'm not sure how I would reduce the latency in MT4?

Hi,

Why does a robot that is profitable on backtest fail so badly on live demo? Here is a picture of my equity growth on gold backtested over last year. The results in other years are not as impressive but still positive. Contrast this with losing 90% of my demo account in one night trading the robot live!

What are the variables I need to better control to ensure backtesting is more accurate? I used a 2 pip spread in the test. Could this alone account for the failure? Is backtesting just a really bad predictor of live trading? Is there a better alternative to testing robots on MT4?

Thanks for sharing your knowledge.

Mike

I am a beginner and have been testing my first few robots using variations of an EMA crossover. After getting disappointing results I tried out my latest version on XAUUSD and had, what looked to me, like a very encouraging test result.
I may have not factored in spread and started with USD 10,000. Just by clicking optimisation and changing the amount to GBP the robot completely bombed and I have not been able to achieve the same result or anything like it since despite reloading the history data and keeping my settings the same as the first run.
Has anyone experienced anything like this? Do you know where I am going wrong? Can I retrieve the details of the test from the journal or the log to see what I did on the positive test?
Thanks
Mike

@l-andorrà Thank you for offering some feedback and pointing this out. I hadn't realised that I was making changes to the shared version so I am not sure when I made this mistake. I have corrected it and posted the version as was when I wrote my first post. I will test it with these settings. https://fxdreema.com/shared/XAv06dBed
Thanks, Mike

@mikehzzzz I notice I posted a version with a fixed 20 pip stop by mistake. This was not profitable! The version I meant to post is the same but without a stop. It exits trades when the ema's cross. I noticed several long trades where a stop would have taken me out of winning trades before the price reversed too far but using a fixed pip stop lost more trades.
I am not too lazy to learn and will continue trying to figure it out but any pointers would be very much appreciated!
Thanks
Mike

Hi,
It took me a while but I have finally got a basic ema crossover ea to work in the MT4 tester and surprisingly, it was profitable!
I wanted it to buy or sell on each crossover but it fails only picking up alternate trades. I have also set it without a SL but think it will perform better with a trailing stop starting at say x 1.5 profit.
Is anyone willing to share ideas on how to make sure it trades on each crossover and the best stop loss strategy to employ?
https://fxdreema.com/shared/u4MouLgxd
Thanks for any help!
Mike