Backtesting
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Hi!
I need your advice. I am backtesting a strategy (on MT4) and i am confused. I optimized it manually through 9 months of 2017 and got some results. Then i backtested other months and got other results. The backtesting is at TF 5 minutes, and i usually get about 1-2 trades per month. How can i achieve systematic results?
Thanks!
Avraham -
because your signals are not consistent
what was working yesterday, is not guaranteed for today ... look for at least 1 signal per day (not per month)
... people still do not understand that these charts are bad for a mechanical system, the only way can be the probability system ... it is like the casino -
Thanks miro.
What do you mean by "probability system"? Please explain more.What do you mean when you write :D?
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this
is smile ...
probability is very-very complex, read (and understand) all posts from this guy ...
https://www.forexfactory.com/search.php?searchid=3553793 -
About the smile, i also like it. I am writing a lot about Judaism and it is all on a way of smile, smiling life, smiling faith.
About the probability, what i understood from you yesterday is that if i am trying to trade MA crossover and get losses, i should take exactly the same setup on opposite direction, i.e. sell instead of buy and vice versa. I didn't check if it is true, but if i remember well your tutorial goes this way.
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Hi Miro!
I go to the link in ForexFactory and get the message "Search results expired. URLs for search results cannot currently be shared with others."
What happens there? -
maybe you must register here and try it again after login ...
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@avrahambr i tried changing from buy to sell and still have losses
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- Can you describe your strategy? (What is it trying to achieve)
- What is the Modelling Quality of your backtest report?
- What timeframe are you actually wanting to trade?
If you're expecting your system to only place 1-2 orders/month then you wight as well just trade on a higher timeframe like H1. Trading M5 for so few trades/month will produce too much "noise".
As @miro1360 tried to link for you, the Forex Factory Forums are a great information resource.
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@miro1360 I registerd and can't enter. Please give me the name of the thread.
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try this: https://www.forexfactory.com/alphaomega
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Thanks.
Are you talking about mean revrse or about Fibonacci grid? -
@drayzen
thanks Drayzen!
My strategy is a simple MA crossover with one addition: take trades only if the greater MA is in great slope at the desired direction. The logic is that this will avoid whipsaws. if i want great slope, there are rare trades and of course nothing consistent. If the condition is moderate slope, there are many trades and there is profit, but this is also not consistent. There are periods (months) of losses also.
So now the problem is how to achieve consistent profit... -
Until you can provide more information about your backtesting we can't help.
There's no point trying to get your system to give better results if your testing is low quality, you need to get 99% testing quality with genetic options disabled.First thing is to get quality tick data.
If you're using MT4 look at getting Tick Data Suite:
https://eareview.net/tick-data-suite
Then get some tick data, if you can get it from your broker then do that, otherwise you can get Dukascopy data using StrategyQuant Tick Downloader:
https://strategyquant.com/tickdownloader/If you're using MT5 then you can download tick data on the platform in the Symbols section, though I've heard some brokers only provide a limited history range.
If you can't download enough history (2+ years would be recommended) you might have to create a Custom Symbol then import the data for testing:
https://www.mql5.com/en/articles/3540If you're trading on MT4, consider making a copy of your EA design for MT5 as it supports multi-threaded backtesting so is much faster for optimisation, provided you have a CPU with many cores...
If you share a link to your EA here you might find that others will also test it and possibly suggest improvements...
