My EA update
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AUD/JPY
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Here's USD/CHF.I posted it a couple weeks ago but there were no favorable conditions for me to enter.Price did enter Fresh dark orange levels at the time but it was too close
to interest levels that price has already hung around in.So I didn't buy even though I deem the orange levels to be the best entries. I instead to just get below them and
focused on the interest level underneath that hasn't been breached. Not only did price reach that level,it dug down deeper to another group of orange levels.A fresh interest
level was created around this zone and when price reached it, I entered. Fresh interest levels under one existing ones gives good reversal likelihood. I was actually anticipating lower movement but now may not be the time for it to go lower. So I entered at the fresh interest level. Price has also spent quite a bit of time under the Green level which is what I desire.
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Here is the entry. I have a short position on too from the first time I post this when I didn't believe that price would rebound from the previously breached interest levels. Even if I got the buy wrong, I still had downside protection.
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I made an error on the GBP/AUD pair. When I copied the wall line from the tester, I accidently shifted it forward to around the 20th instead of the 13th. The price level is correct. The one that I should have executed on was the one after. I will post the correct chart, a video of the tester, and the actual live position. I still entered the trade but I moved my stop once I noticed.
I sat through a little drawdown but had I not screwed up by not updating the recent wall, the drawdown would have been very very minimal and that's my goal with these templates. The Wall on 500 clusters with the interest level while spending much time under the green is what I consider an A plus setup. Doesn't mean it price can't come back. If it choses to, I'd rather be as close to the bottom as possible. If it does, I'll have a plan for that.
Backtester video
https://vimeo.com/900306138?share=copyPosition
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I don't understand, you coded this strategy with FxDreema? The indicator too?
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@Alex81 Correct. About 7 EA's. I covered the important ones. It's complex in terms of development. I just sought for the simplest strategy. Holding and milking the move. While other traders are focused on all the other stuff that they believe causes the market to move, I'm as close to the bottom or top and in profit no matter which direction price moves while they are taking on risk. My objective is to eliminate as much risk as possible. These templates helped me achieve that. Every position I'm in right now is as close to the bottom as possible. That's where I want to be. Yes this was all done in FXDreema. As frustrating as it was to make everything work, it's definitely possible to use it in more creative ways than just trying to build a strategy with a perfect equity curve in all market conditions which is impossible for me to do.
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Really impressive!
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@JayPhillbrooks could you explain the mental journey that made you develop this concept? the technical basis?
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@Alex81 No problem. I will admit this. Most of the time was just throwing shit at the wall and seeing what sticks. While I have been trading for about three years, I only done so casually. I'm well aware of retail sentiment and common wisdom of support and resistance, indicators, news, etc. I always been skeptical of all of that and I got to the point where I flat out leave it out. I believe that it's all about timing and I think that the best timing is where particular strategies are feeling the most pain. So I created strategies and instead of flat using them, I started to pay attention to how they faired over a period of time. For example, I am paying attention for price to climb to a certain point. Price can get to that point and when it does, I'm not soley looking at the fact that it's resistance because price previously dropped from there. I'm focused on how did certain strategies do to get there if they were triggered at all. Did price get deep within my green zones? Did a condition get triggered to generate an interest signal at that level? Is it lined up with any important levels from Template 7? Is price nearing a wall level? Usually when certain templates meet my requirements and even better when they all do, That dictates it's a good time or level to enter and at that point even if price is intended to go lower, it's like '' Hey lets turn around and knock out these guys first.'' I've tested it enough to notice that I have a good idea to know where not to be a seller in a downtrend vice versa for being a buyer in an uptrend. Knowing that also help. The EA's are purely a representation of orders being placed and I'm seeing how profitable those strategies are. As I mentioned before, it all started out with actual orders being placed and I made it to where I replicate it visually. I actually have a couple more that I know aren't profitable if I were to use them on their own. I mentally visualize selling a level knowing that statistically the trade won't be profitable most of the time if I were to take that sell. That doesn't mean I buy. I'm already in the trade from a reversal so I'm more confident to keep holding. The simplest way to explain my process is that I'm using algos to do all of the daytrading but they aren't actually placing orders. When their stop levels are hit and I mean really hit, I see a sea of blood and that's when I believe it to be a good time to enter. This takes a while to occur though but it's worth the wait. I know it's hard to wrap your head around all of this and it shouldn't make sense but these are patterns and behaviors that I noticed during immense bactesting. That's why I'm backing this up with live positions because many don't believe that backtesting is useful and that it's impossible to catch reversals consistantly. I think that it's possible. It just takes patience and a good system. I'm on my first prop firm and I'm already nearing completing the first phase in 13 days. Could have blown it out the water if I added more size but I'm being conservative. I understand the nature and fuckery with prop firms but it feels good to be up so much with little effort while knowing that many people are struggling. I say all of this while knowing that there's still a long way to go to see how effective this plays out over the long haul.
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Here's a EUR/CHF position. Well two of them. I will provide two screenshots. The first one is the chart with Template 3 and Template 6. Template 7 is in there but I just marked the orange and purple levels for simplicity. I will demonstrate Template 7 in it's entirety afterwards to show what else I look for on there. I will also mention that even though the wall is powerful, It's not always needed because other templates can setup while the wall doesn't.
As seen in other examples, Price broke the green and even though there was a fresh orange level right underneath it, I wasn't long immediately. There was also immediate interest levels after the break. In most instances, I prefer price to spend some time under the green and dig deeper. I got more interested as price reached the lower interest level. Deep below orange and 1k levels gives higher upside probability. I'm always long from orange in a downtrend. Doesn't mean that it will always be as soon as price hits it. And it doesn't mean that I anticipate this to be a 1k pip move. I actually don't. I just know that there is a really good chance of upside for some time before price goes lower. These are live open positions.
Here's what Template 7 presented. Price came down on top of the deep stops that are created from each 1k level. The more time that goes by before these levels are hit, the more potential for upside. That coupled with the other confirmations gave me more confidence to go long. The topmost level goes back to 8/22/2022. What I noticed is that these levels more times than not defend price from going much lower. Price tends to dig a few times before reversing. In the short term, there is upside and I will get in on that move but I'll get out because it's my belief that price come back down to to bully these levels just like the ones above. I will actually take profit right underneath the previous cluster because I think that price will frustrate buyers at that level and not let them out while also taking out recent sellers on this trend down. Even though this is a downtrend, that doesn't mean that you should sell at any level at any time.
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Here is GBP/CHF entry. It met my Template criteria. Price didn't reach into any orange or 1k purple levels but it was still a solid possibility along with the fact that I was long on other CHF pairs as well.
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Here's an update on the trades. These here are the results of one of the challenges I'm in. They were automatically closed when I reached the profit target for phase one. Now I'm in phase 2. I still have open positions on my personal accounts. This was achieved with small positions compared to the account size. This account in particular is a 50k account. The total lots were 1.6.
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These are the updates for the JPY pairs and GBP/AUD
USD/JPY
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
CHF/JPY
CAD/JPY
AUD/JPY
GBP/AUD
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Any backtest to share so far?
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@l-andorrà Do you mean examples from previous years? If you mean backtest in the sense of metrics and an equity curve, that can't be done because the EA's don't place orders. It's purely visual and I manually put on the trade based on what I see visually. I have attempted to automate trades based on the conditions I look for but discretion it's far more superior because it allows me to keep the drawdown as tight as possible. This method gives me the best of both worlds and it would be impossible to manually chart these strategies. So it's pretty much a charting system instead of placing orders for me. It was backtested in the sense of spending hours upon hours in the backtester just like I'm observing live. There were similar patterns and that's why I'm able to have some conviction before entering because I know that there is a solid probability of price doing what I expect based on seeing it play out so many times in the backtester across every major and minor pair. I hope that cleared it up.
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I still don't get where do these lines come from. Are you using external data, for example, retail sentiment? Or from ATRs?
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@Alex81 Those lines are stop loss clusters. Technically stop losses are everywhere but those are the ones I deem to be the important ones. How those lines are generated depends on the strategies used to create them. Some templates are created on smaller timeframes and some on larger timeframes. The strategies used are opening ranges, breakouts, and hedging. And no. No external data. No use of indicators. I learned a lot from Stacey Burks on youtube and though I don't trade his style or use his setups, he gave a ton of insight on ways to perceive price action that isn't much spoke about. So I built this around those concepts.
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I have a template to share that's showing a setup I look for. These setups take a while to manifest and I'm still long from the bottom that was put in which I posted at the time. They JPY pairs done exactly what I expected and I believe that there's still some upward movement to go. With that being said, I believe that USD/JPY may have some downward movement soon. Even though I'm still long, I applied the sell side templates because price don't go up forever and I play both sides. This template gives me high probable areas to sell from. Doesn't mean I will be right or get it to the exact. I just know that there are enough rules being met for me enter.
- Price is above the green and spent quite a bit of time above that zone and if it grinds up deeper, it's more likely to retrace back.
- Price has reached an interest level. Though I gauge them as good entry points, that doesn't mean that I enter on first hit. I much rather prefer the new interest level zone.
I believe that there is still some upward work to be done before price comes back down by substantial measure. I could be wrong but I'm okay with that. My intuition is telling
me that it's not the sellers time yet and I don't want to get in too early. - My 500 levels are getting hit as well. In this uptrend, I don't think buyers at these levels will see much profitability especially later buyers if price move up. I believe it for them
to more likely take heat than continue up.
With all of that being said, if price gets to the second interest area, I'm going short. The sooner the better. If it doesn't, I can live with that.
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Here's an update on the previous posts. I closed out all of my positions. As much as I'd like to continue the ride from where I entered, It was best that I closed my positions and get everything sorted out with brokers and moving towards legit ones. I'm a U.S resident and my money was at risk and we are losing access to prop firms. I'm not even sure if we'll be able to use metatrader anymore. Though I don't need it for placing trades, I just need it to run backtests and hopefully it will be available in demo mode and I'll place the trades elsewhere. It's frustrating that I spent all this time and effort only to not be able to use the platform. Thankfully I documented every step of creation incase it have to be created for another platform. Nevertheless, here's an update on the positions I entered. Every trade played out exactly how I expected. I aim to get in as close to the bottom/top as possible and hold for weeks/months. Not bad considering the system was consistent across different pairs.
USD/JPY
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
CHF/JPY
CAD/JPY
AUD/JPY
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USD/CHF
GBP/CHF
EUR/CHF
GBP/AUD
